Nobody Modeled a War: Grading Wall Street’s 2026 Forecasts at the Halfway Point
Rate cuts were certain. Energy was cheap. The Fed would pivot. None of it happened. We score the five biggest consensus calls of 2026 — and map the four scenarios that will define the second half.
About this episode
Every December, Wall Street publishes its forecasts for the year ahead. For 2026: multiple Fed rate cuts, cooling inflation, subdued energy prices, Magnificent Seven leadership. Six months later, the score is three wrong and two complicated. The one variable nobody modeled — a war that closed the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 — invalidated nearly every major macro call. James and Elena run through the mid-year scorecard, then map the four scenarios that will determine whether H2 2026 looks like a soft re-landing, higher-for-longer 2.0, stagflation, or an AI productivity surprise. This is the episode that ties the whole series together.
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Disclaimer
This podcast is financial commentary for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. We are not a registered investment advisor. Consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.